As a consequence of the failure of the latest negotiations over
Iran’s nuclear program, the European Union ban on the importation of
Iranian oil took effect on July 1, 2012, and closure of the Strait of
Hormuz by Iran became an issue again. This has provoked the following
question: What actually is Iran’s strategy in the Strait of Hormuz?
The West has two perspectives on Iran closing the Strait. The first, based on a defensive standpoint, perceives Iran’s threat to be nothing more than a bluff, merely made to assert its power. Iran may be able to close the Strait temporarily, but lacks the superior military power to continue the closure.
From this perspective, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz for the following three reasons: first, Iran’s economy is dependent on the revenues from oil exported through the Strait. Second, Iran’s action could provoke a harsh military reaction from the United States and its allies, who then would have the necessary pretext to seize control of the Strait and possibly declare it to be an international passage. Third, Iran would face the possible negative reaction of other countries that it currently has friendly relations with (Russia, China, Iraq, Turkey, and India) and whose geopolitical, economic, and energy security interests would be adversely affected. For instance, Iraq has recently announced that some 1.7 million barrels of its oil transits the Strait and maintains that Iran should not close the passage.
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The West has two perspectives on Iran closing the Strait. The first, based on a defensive standpoint, perceives Iran’s threat to be nothing more than a bluff, merely made to assert its power. Iran may be able to close the Strait temporarily, but lacks the superior military power to continue the closure.
From this perspective, Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz for the following three reasons: first, Iran’s economy is dependent on the revenues from oil exported through the Strait. Second, Iran’s action could provoke a harsh military reaction from the United States and its allies, who then would have the necessary pretext to seize control of the Strait and possibly declare it to be an international passage. Third, Iran would face the possible negative reaction of other countries that it currently has friendly relations with (Russia, China, Iraq, Turkey, and India) and whose geopolitical, economic, and energy security interests would be adversely affected. For instance, Iraq has recently announced that some 1.7 million barrels of its oil transits the Strait and maintains that Iran should not close the passage.
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